引用本文: 吴锐, 孙政, 岳臣龙等. 基于蒙特卡洛物质点法的土质滑坡全过程风险定量评估. 力学与实践, 2023, 45(4): 805-817.
Wu Rui, Sun Zheng, Yue Chenlong, et al. Quantitative assessment of the whole process risk of soil landslide based on Monte Carlo material point method. Mechanics in Engineering, 2023, 45(4): 805-817.
 Citation: Wu Rui, Sun Zheng, Yue Chenlong, et al. Quantitative assessment of the whole process risk of soil landslide based on Monte Carlo material point method. Mechanics in Engineering, 2023, 45(4): 805-817.

## QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE WHOLE PROCESS RISK OF SOIL LANDSLIDE BASED ON MONTE CARLO MATERIAL POINT METHOD

• 摘要: 针对土体参数空间变异性问题，提出了一种定量评估滑坡全过程风险的数值方法：蒙特卡洛物质点法。基于滑动时间、滑动动能、滑动质量比和滑动距离等四种定量评估参数，对土体黏聚力和内摩擦角在不同概率分布下滑坡全过程风险进行了定量评估。结果表明：相较确定性分析，考虑土体变异性后能更准确地评估滑坡全过程风险；模拟结果在正态分布和对数正态分布下较为接近，而在三角形分布和均匀分布下差异较大。当黏聚力服从对数正态分布、内摩擦角服从正态分布时，蒙特卡洛物质点法可以有效开展滑坡全过程风险定量评估。

Abstract: Aiming at the problem of spatial variability of soil parameters, a numerical method, Monte Carlo material point method, was proposed to quantitatively assess the risk of the whole process of landslide. Based on four quantitative evaluation parameters, including sliding time, sliding kinetic energy, sliding mass ratio and sliding distance, the whole process risk of landslide was quantitatively assessed under different probability distributions of soil cohesion and internal friction angle. The results show that the whole process risk of landslide can be more accurately assessed by considering soil variability when compared with the deterministic analysis. The simulation results under normal distribution and lognormal distributionare are close with eath other, but different from those under triangular distribution and uniform distribution. The Monte Carlo material point method can effectively carry out the quantitative risk assessment of the whole process of landslide when the cohesion satisfies a log-normal distribution and the internal friction angle is of normal distribution.

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