面向小失效概率问题的重要性气泡抽样方法

An importance bubble sampling method for small failure probability

  • 摘要: 在可靠性分析领域,数值模拟法因其实现简单、实用性强而被广泛使用。然而工程实践中普遍存在小失效概率问题,需要计算大量样本才能得到满足精度的解。针对这一难点,本研究结合重要性抽样和气泡法的思想提出一种重要性气泡抽样方法。该方法将最可能失效点作为抽样中心,利用随机样本到极限状态函数的最短距离作为半径构造气泡,并对落入气泡中的随机样本进行过滤。从而避免计算大量样本,大幅提高可靠性分析的计算效率。根据算例测试结果,重要性气泡抽样法相对重要性抽样法减少约80%的计算成本,同时得到足够精度的失效概率。

     

    Abstract: In reliability analysis, numerical simulation methods have been widely adopted due to their simplicity and versatility. However, engineering practices frequently encounter small failure probability problems, which necessitate computationally intensive sampling to obtain the solutions with enough accuracy. To address this challenge, this study proposes an importance bubble sampling method grounded in the principles of importance sampling. The method establishes the structural MPP (Most Probable Point) as the sampling center, constructs bubbles using the shortest distance from the random samples to the limit state function as the radius These bubbles selectively filter stochastic samples within the bubble-constrained domain, thereby avoiding the computational burden associated with large sample sizes while enhancing the efficiency of reliability analysis. Numerical case studies demonstrate that the proposed importance bubble sampling method achieves sufficiently accurate failure probability with significantly reduced samples compared to conventional approaches.

     

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