考虑罕遇地震重尾分布的建筑抗震韧性设计方法

A SEISMIC RESILIENT DESIGN METHOD FOR BUILDINGS CONSIDERING HEAVY-TAILED DISTRIBUTIONS

  • 摘要: 在低概率但极具破坏力的重尾分布地震动下,建筑损失预期显著高于普通地震,导致评估的不确定性和变异性增大,传统84%保证率的韧性指标不再安全。本文提出一种考虑罕遇地震重尾分布的建筑抗震韧性设计方法,通过引入多条强震记录构建重尾分布模型,结合GB/T 38591—2020中的韧性评价方法,利用可靠性分析得到韧性指标(如建筑损伤、修复成本、时间和人员伤害等)的概率分布规律;基于84%保证率的失效概率和可靠性指标确定潜在损失的置信上限,并结合现行规范对钢筋混凝土框架结构进行基于可靠性的多目标分灾优化设计,优化后的抗震韧性指标得到很大改善。

     

    Abstract: Under the action of low-probability but very destructive heavy-tailed ground motion, the building damage and loss are expected to be significantly higher than that of ordinary earthquakes, which leads to the increase of uncertainty and variability in resilience and the traditional indexes of 84% assurance rate are no longer safe. This paper proposes a building seismic resilience design method considering the heavy-tailed distribution of rare earthquakes: constructing a heavy-tailed distribution model by introducing the actual intense earthquake records, combining the evaluation method in GB/T 38591-2020, and using reliability analysis to obtain the probability distribution of resilience indicators (such as building damage, repair cost, repair time and personnel injury). The optimized seismic performances have significantly improved based on the 84% quantile and reliability indexes to determine the upper bound of the potential loss, combined with the current specification of reinforced concrete frame structure and reliability-based multi-objective disaster optimization design.

     

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