Abstract:
Accurate estimation of extreme typhoon wind speed is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation as well as engineering wind-resistant design. This paper reviews recent research advances in stochastic typhoon extreme wind speed estimation, with particular focus on analyzing the applicability and limitations of typhoon track models, wind field models, and extreme value theory distributions. The findings demonstrate that: the straight-line track model offers computational efficiency suitable for rapid regional assessment, whereas the full-track model provides higher accuracy at the cost of greater computational complexity; While Yan Meng wind field model possesses advantages of analytical solutions, empirical formulas for maximum wind speed radius and pressure profile parameters still face challenges in model compatibility and regional applicability; Significant discrepancies exist in the extreme value distributions adopted by different nations. Future research should prioritize optimizing model regional adaptability and accounting for key parameter correlations to further enhance the predictive accuracy of extreme wind speed, thereby providing more robust scientific support for typhoon disaster prevention and engineering mitigation design.