长输氢气管道失效分析与定量风险评价

FAILURE ANALYSIS AND QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF LONG DISTANCE HYDROGEN PIPELINE

  • 摘要: 长输氢气管道是一种解决大规模输氢的有效方式,但其失效机理和泄漏扩散规律不同于常规油气管道,因此为提高氢气长距离管输的风险应对能力,本文分析了包括氢损伤在内的6类风险致因,辨识了氢气管道泄漏典型事故场景,研究了失效概率预测和潜在生命损失计算模型,从而构建了一种量化风险评价方法。通过案例分析表明:该方法解决国内缺少失效统计数据前提下的失效概率分析问题,多场景泄漏事故计算为最大限度评估后果严重性提供保障。

     

    Abstract: Long distance hydrogen pipeline is an effective way to solve the problem of large-scale hydrogen transmission, but its failure mechanism and leakage diffusion law are different from those of conventional oil and gas pipelines. Therefore, in order to improve the risk response ability of long distance hydrogen pipeline transmission, this paper analyzed six risk causes including hydrogen damage, identified typical accident scenarios of hydrogen pipeline leakage, and studied the failure probability prediction and potential life loss calculation models. Thus a quantitative risk assessment method is formed. Case analysis shows that this method can solve the problem of failure probability analysis under the premise of lack of failure statistics in China, and multi scenario leakage accident calculation can provide guarantee for maximum assessment of consequence severity.

     

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