随机台风极值风速估计研究综述

A REVIEW OF ESTIMATION OF EXTREME WIND SPEEDS OF STOCHASTIC TYPHOONS

  • 摘要: 准确估计台风的极值风速对于灾害防控和工程抗风设计至关重要。本文综述了随机台风极值风速估计的研究进展,重点分析了台风路径模型、风场模型及极值理论分布的适用性与局限性。研究表明:直线路径模型计算高效,适用于区域快速评估,而全路径模型精度更高但计算复杂;Yan Meng风场模型具有解析解优势,但最大风速半径与气压剖面参数的经验公式仍存在匹配性和区域适用性问题;不同国家采用的极值分布类型存在显著差异。未来研究应着重优化模型区域适配性,考虑关键参数相关性,进一步提高极值风速的预测精度,为台风灾害防控和工程防灾设计提供更坚实的科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: Accurate estimation of extreme typhoon wind speed is critical for disaster prevention and mitigation as well as for the wind-resistant design of engineering structures. This paper reviews recent research advances in stochastic typhoon extreme wind speed estimation, with a particular focus on analyzing the applicability and limitations of typhoon track models, wind field models, and extreme value distributions. The main findings indicate that: the straight-line track model offers computational efficiency suitable for rapid regional assessment, whereas the full-track model delivers higher accuracy at the expense of increased computational demand; the Yan Meng wind field model benefits from analytical solutions, yet empirical formulas for key parameters such as the radius of maximum wind speed and pressure profile parameters still face challenges in model compatibility and regional applicability; significant discrepancies exist among the extreme value distributions adopted in different countries. Future research should prioritize optimizing model regional adaptability and accounting for key parameter correlations to further enhance the predictive accuracy of extreme wind speed, thereby providing more robust scientific support for typhoon disaster prevention and engineering mitigation design.

     

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